For days there has been speculation about the score of the AFC championship game between the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs. However, the front row on Sunday afternoon after the game call ranged from Chiefs -4 to Bills -2.5 in sportsbooks around the world.
That’s what Patrick Mahomes’ injury did to the betting market, and that’s just the beginning.
By the end of Sunday night, the line was favored by the leaders to 2.5 points, -3 by some books. It’s unlikely he’ll stay there.
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Mahomes suffered a concussion in the second half of the 22-17 playoff victory over the Cleveland Browns. His status in the AFC Championship was pending until Monday. If he plays, the line will almost certainly get longer. If Buffalo is eliminated, it could be a Super Bowl favorite and the Green Bay Packers a Super Bowl favorite.
If Mahomes retires, the Bills would be a decent favorite, said Sunday night John Murray, general manager of the SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas, noting that some of his bettors have a line on Buffalo -7 if replacement Chad Henne starts for the Chiefs in Mahomes’ place. It seems a bit extreme to me, but it gives you an idea of the extent of fallout from Mahomes in henna, in terms of point spread.
Johnny Avello, Director of Sports Betting at DraftKings, expected the Chiefs to remain the favorites to win the Super Bowl, but he knows the gap has narrowed considerably with Mahomes’ injury.
They will still be the favorites, but it will be a bit of a change,” Avello said.
On Sunday night, in William Hill’s American sports betting, the Chiefs were at +200 to win the Super Bowl, followed by the Packers at +225, the Bills at +300 and the Buccaneers at +400. But a lot can change this week.
In the meantime, here are the high stakes.
NFL
– The Packers were the big favorites with a four point lead over the Buccaneers in Sunday night’s NFC Championship game. SuperBook opened Green Bay at -4.5 and quickly took the money from the Buccaneers, who weren’t very good, by taking the number to -4.
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– As part of the AFC championship, most of the first SuperBook bets were placed on the Bills. The biggest bet so far, however, was the $20,000 bet on the Chiefs -3 (even), Murray said. The public loves both teams, even if the Chiefs continue to disappoint the players. You haven’t covered today.
– In eight of the Chiefs’ last nine games, the spread was not met.
– The late fee came for the Browns and led to a Sunday start. The line, which had been between -10 and -9.5 all week for Kansas City, dropped to -7.5 before kickoff. SuperBook reported a late hit of sharp silver on Cleveland as the entire market moved toward the outsider Browns.
The difference between 7.5 and 9.5 is not that big, according to Avello of DrafKings. I don’t know why that thing fell off. I don’t understand why they took nine, eight and a half.
Circa Sports, the Las Vegas bookmaker known to professional gamblers, had more bets on Kansas City, but also more money on Cleveland.
All the big bets we keep on the Browns, Matt Metcalfe, director of sports betting for Circa Sports in Las Vegas, said in a text message to ESPN before Sunday’s game. Someone took [Cleveland Plus] eight minutes ago.
– The Chiefs led 22-10 with just over 11 minutes to go when Mahomes was officially arrested for the remainder of the game. Kansas City was a big favorite at the time, -900 to win the game. After a Browns touchdown cut the score to 22-17 and Mahomes was eliminated, the live odds went to -500 for the Chiefs.
– The most popular bet on the Browns-Chiefs game in the Tipico New Jersey sportsbook was less than 260.5 on Baker Mayfield’s passes, accounting for 50% of the book’s action on player accessories.
– Sunday’s Buccaneers-Saints game was the biggest bet of the weekend for several sportsbooks.
– The athlete, who owns a PointsBet bookie, bet $5,400 on the Bills -3.5 against the Ravens. In this example, the one-point bet, commonly known as a point bet, was calculated based on the number of points the Tickets cover the spread. They bridged the gap to 11.5 points and the tie brought in $56,700.
– Saturday’s game between the Rams and Packers was qualified by some of the pros against the joeurs. The Rams, few in number, have attracted the attention of professional bookmakers for early bets at +7. The line dropped to Green Bay -6.5 and stayed there for most of the week despite unbalanced betting on the favored Packers. In the early days of PointsBet, Green Bay accounted for 82% of bets and 89% of money won. The Packers won by a 32-18 margin.
NBA
The Nets’ chances have increased with the acquisition of James Harden. Photo by Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images.
Eastern Conference favorites after tougher trade
With the acquisition of James Harden, the Brooklyn Nets have overtaken the Milwaukee Bucks and are now the Eastern Conference favorites. But some bettors are still not convinced by the new NBA super team.
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The Nets’ chances of winning the title improved from 12-1 to 7-2 last week at the SuperBook. Jeff Sherman, who oversees the NBA’s SuperBook rating, began lowering Brooklyn’s rating last Tuesday after Harden told reporters he didn’t think the situation in Houston could be resolved. Sherman brought the Nets’ chances down to 8-1, then 6-1 and 7-2 after the exchange.
Only the Los Angeles Lakers have a better chance of winning the title than the Nets, who have attracted big bets in the SuperBook in the preseason and more recently, including a $10,000 bet in December. The Bucks have the second highest rating in the Eastern Conference at 8-1, followed by the Boston Celtics, Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers at 20-1.
According to Sherman, I don’t see much difference between them and some of the other eastern teams in terms of title chances. When you see the 7-2 at the net and the 8-1 at the Bucks, and the Heat, Celtics and Sixers at 20-1, I don’t think it’s as different per game as it seems based on the headline odds.
Sherman said his energy level with the Nets is still not satisfactory because he is waiting to see how Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant and Harden develop chemistry.
They can talk about a good game all they want, but we don’t know what their chemistry will be, Sherman said. There were already rumors that Irvine was not happy backstage with the Nets. Would that make him any more unhappy?
Three questions
…with Scott Butera, co-CEO of sports platform Vigtory, who last week announced his intention to acquire live streaming platform fuboTV. The acquisition transaction is in the final stages and once completed, fuboTV is expected to launch its sports betting service by the end of the year.
Q : What is your vision for the product that will come out of the fuboTV Vigtory deal?
A : I think the ability to watch live sports and make deals and bet on sports is very powerful. I also think that this gives us a lot of room in terms of customer approach and acquisition. We’ll announce the product in due course, but the idea is that you’ll have some sort of simultaneous experience between consuming sports, watching sports, and being able to bet on sports and do business with sports. It can be betting, merchandise, tickets. I think the general idea is to create these global entertainment experiences that are multifaceted. We have found that there is a lot of synergy between the two.
Q : What are the remaining obstacles to the introduction of such a service?
A : As for the hurdles, of course, we have a government rollout plan, just like any other operator. We’re knee-deep in it. Adopt appropriate legislation in countries where it has not yet entered into force. I think these things will change over time. I think this combination [with fuboTV] helps us overcome a lot of things, and I think there are now a lot of different ways that we can reach markets beyond the traditional way of sports betting, either through streaming services or other products that we can introduce that don’t necessarily have the same regulatory requirements that sports betting has now. In fact, it helps us deal with a lot of things.
Q : Vigtia’s stated approach to sports betting was to offer the opportunity to place bets on low level sports. Is that still the case?
A : Our goal has always been to have a truly excellent product with great value. We want excellent technology, excellent know-how and good value for money. And value is not necessarily defined by price, but by what you get for what you pay, and that has always been our goal.
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