If you want to know the difference between the volume and volatility of a stock, you have to know the price. If you’re looking at the value of a player, you have to know the price of the player. For that reason, you can’t assess the value of a player without knowing how much the player is expected to reach. Distinguishing between a good bet and a bad one is easy if you know the odds and the price of the player. What many people don’t understand is that volatility and volume don’t have anything to do with each other. Also, volume is only important when you’re trying to predict how much a player is going to be worth. Just because a player has a lot of volume, it doesn’t mean
Player prop bets? What are these? Stay up to date on the latest player prop bets by reading this article. I’ll explain how to bet on player prop bets, which players to bet on and which players you should avoid. I’ll also share my personal views about the best players to bet on and the players that are not worth betting on.
At the end of the day, the only thing that matters when you are placing a bet on a player is whether they will be the one to perform above or below their average for the season. Volume and volatility are good indicators for this, but they are not always accurate.
Looking at all the odds and props offered makes you feel intimidated? Do you think all of these numbers are magical? Don’t worry, we’ve assembled some of the finest sports betting and fantasy football brains to discuss how they approach the season, how to use fantasy predictions to player prop bets, and when to bet the under.
1) There are a lot of crossovers between fantasy sports and prop betting. How would you approach a season-long prop from a betting standpoint, and how would you approach it differently from a projection/fantasy one?
Mike Clay, a fantasy football writer, says: The first step is the easiest: Compare each projection to the prop it corresponds to and discover which ones stand out as potential values. It everything makes sense. But the conversation isn’t over yet. The most common complaint of my projections is that they are too cautious (or “too low”), yet when compared against a complete set of props, I’ve discovered that I was actually too high (or too aggressive) in certain places. In fact, I’d suggest that if you looked at most industry forecasts, you’d find that around 80% of them are above the corresponding prop. When it comes to fantasy advise, props are often a warning that injuries, drop-off, and volatility are sometimes overlooked. The main difference between fantasy and prop betting is that in fantasy, you may get away with concentrating more on the ceiling, while with prop betting, the floor is crucial. To put it another way, aiming for upside in fantasy may pay off handsomely, but if your prop betting ratio of overs to unders is skewed too much toward the former, you’ll almost certainly lose money.
Sports betting analyst Doug Kezirian: All bettors have their own approach and mine mostly stems from an old-school handicapping approach, which is basically applying sports knowledge and other general acumen. Of course, when you’re assessing a season-long prop, you have to have a grasp for the statistic. For example, in MLB, if you ask me if someone will bat .300, I already have a general sense of what that means. But if you ask me if a wideout will go over or under 1250 yards in what is now a 17-game season, I have to crunch a few numbers to process the prop. In this example, that’s 73.5 yards per game and I will then start to research past performance. None of this is too elaborate and oddsmakers obviously grasp the simple math, but it does help me apply a gut check and form a conclusion based on a general sense of what is expected on a game-by-game basis. My ultimate opinion will center around my opinion on that QB, any roster moves that impact the player’s opportunity and how that team will fare that season. Additionally, in almost all situations, I will scour fantasy websites or source some math modelers to gauge the analytical projections (see below).
Anita Marks, a sports betting expert, says: Mike is correct, however it’s tough to bet the under most of the time because, as sports “fans,” we want to wager the over and want for that guy to succeed. Unless you’re a Ravens supporter, in which case the under on Odell Beckham Jr.’s receiving yards is a good bet. You must leave your heart at the door, as they say in fiction. You must do the same while placing prop bets. Again, saying it is much simpler than doing it! Would it be a smart betting strategy to wager the under on the ten top season player props at each position (QB, RB, WR, and TE)?
Clay: Isn’t it true that the evidence is in the pudding? I looked at the Caesars Sportsbook props that we’ve spoken about a lot over the last two offseasons. In 2019, the under was successful on 90% of the top ten throw touchdown props, 60% of the top ten passing yardage props, 80% of the top ten receiving yardage props, 50% of the top ten reception props, 50% of the top ten running yardage props, and 60% of the top ten total touchdowns props (20 percent were ties). Despite the fact that the league’s offensive exploded in 2020, the under was still the best bet, hitting on 55 percent of all prop bets.
The under was correct on 40% of the top ten passing yardage props, 70% of the top ten receiving touchdown props, and 60% of the top ten receiving yardage propositions. In other areas, we had a lower sample size, but the under was correct on four of the top five rushing yard props, three of the top five rush TD props, and three of the four throw TD props.
2) How does a player’s week-to-week volatility affect your decision on whether to gamble on him or start him in fantasy football?
ESPN Fantasy Senior Writer Eric Karabell: Well, I’m not sure it impacts it much, or if it should. Much goes into months of initial projections and it seems silly to tear ’em up after a week or two. During a season, after a substantial part of the season, I will reassess, but just because Patrick Mahomes has a rough Week 1 it does not alter my expectations for Week 2. Would we notice in Week 6? By the time the byes arrive, I reassess overachievers and underachievers. Also, football volatility is unlike baseball, for example, so take each sport differently with proper prop betting plans.
Marks: When it comes to placing weekly prop bets, I enjoy the volatility since there is generally a purpose for it. An injury, a change in offensive strategy or game plan, a player in the offensive coordinator’s doghouse, and so on are all examples. Investigate the reason, consider the ramifications, and place your bets appropriately.
3) How much do you rely on fantasy predictions when placing a wager on a prop?
Marks: I’d be stupid not to, since we have the finest fantasy analysts in the industry. I also find the weekly/daily player information write-ups to be extremely useful in my analysis.
This season’s NFL quarterback betting storylines are broken down by the Daily Wager team.
Kezirian: I agree with Anita, however I also use this idea in a macro context. I want to examine and analyze all predictions if reputable individuals are dedicating time and effort to them. Obviously, there is a point at which analytical paralysis sets in, but I am a strong believer in gathering data and weighing all options. You must make your own choice in the end, but appreciating others’ viewpoints is a smart approach; tunnel vision is never helpful. For instance, if you’re going to bet the over and two modelers you respect adore the under — and the logic makes sense — I’ll probably pass. If the under is correct, I will have “made” +110 by averting a -110 loss.
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4) How do you narrow down the weekly props you’re most confident in betting based on those predictions as ESPN’s projections creator?
Clay: It’s a similar approach to what I said earlier: I compare my weekly predictions to the props and see which ones stand out as potential values. Once I’ve narrowed it down to a handful, I look at the data to determine whether my forecast is accurate or if I need to make any adjustments. Those are the ones I jump on after I’m comfortable with a few props. For single-game props, I’m more likely to go toward overs than I am for season-long props. Sure, smaller samples have greater volatility, but if you have a strong sense for a player’s expected volume or a particularly favorable (or unfavorable) matchup, you may be more aggressive with over bets.
This article broadly covered the following related topics:
- prop bets
- what is volatility in stocks
- what does stock volume mean
- stocks with high volatility
- types of bets