Whether Trump is given one or two terms will determine whether his shocking and unshakeable Republican presidency is an aberration of recent political history or whether it can forever transform America and the world into its own destructive image.
Trump made it clear that if he became the first deposed president to be re-elected, he would be forced to unleash a much purer form of his rigid nationalist ideology and that he could be totally imperturbable in his attempts to fully arm the institutions of the US administration according to his own goals and whims.
If the president wins, he is likely to redouble his efforts in his crusades against the elites and warn that white America may be overwhelmed by a changing demographic situation. He will probably be even more loyal to his faithful followers who, in his calls to imprison his opponents and accuse the doctors of the death of Covid-19, see the incarnation of the destructive machine they sent to destroy the Washington branch in 2016.
His victory after months of slipping in the polls will be another highlight in the eyes of the respondents and media commentators who predicted his defeat, confirming his unorthodox but inexplicable and unique political talent for channeling the fears and opinions of millions of Americans.
Another four years will give Mr Trump more time to align the government with his personal goals. Trump complains, for example, that Attorney General William Barr – who seems to have been following the president’s political priorities since he took office – is not paying enough attention to his wishes and is proposing a future government entirely made up of his parishioners. Such an approach would almost certainly undermine the constitutional structures that largely guarantee American political freedoms, even in times of political turmoil.
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However, the president presents this election as a last chance to save the personal liberties of the millions of Americans who introduced it – something that has seemingly worried him ever since.
The men and women of our country will never be forgotten, and you know it, and you have seen it, Trump said in a comprehensive campaign in Minnesota on Friday.
Four years ago we had a very, very exciting time, it’s even more exciting, and frankly, it’s a bigger choice, and I never thought I’d say this…. That’s it. That’s it. This is the history of our people, this is a very, very great moment for our country.
The trump card is the change of country
The most direct consequence of this second asset is likely to be the management of the Covida 19 crisis, a growing disaster that the White House is largely trying to stop. The discrepancy between the president and the government’s chief infectious disease expert, Dr. Anthony Fauci, who said in an interview with the Washington Post that the United States is on its way to a very sick case, now seems to have narrowed. A policy closer to collective immunity seems more likely if the president wins. This approach, which experts believe can cost hundreds of thousands of lives, is advocated by Dr. Scott Atlas, Trump’s preferred advisor, who is not an expert on infectious diseases. Even if Trump loses in the dark winter before his inauguration in January, it is unlikely that Trump will be aggressive in his antivirus policy, which he rejected when he ran for a second term and denied the threat.
Politically, a victory for the better would mean a rapid economic recovery before any attempt to slow down the pandemic, which is now more terrible than ever. His victory will affect the health plans of millions of Americans, strengthen hard immigration policies, prolong the racially-based national dislocation he has created, and resonate far beyond the American shores among the hundreds of millions of people who have no say in the elections that shape their lives. For example, as far as health care is concerned, Mr Trump has not yet told us how he will replace Obamacare, who has the next appointment, with the fate of the Supreme Court next week, nor how, after the destruction of the market system that gives the insurance companies the financial means to provide this coverage, he will guarantee coverage for those who are already under the same conditions.
The elections were crucial to the political aspirations of millions of centrist voters who did not necessarily accept their vulgarity, but believed it had fulfilled its promise to defend Americans forgotten and devastated by globalization. If Mr Trump wins his re-election with better results than the polls in the Midwest, he will have to thank those voters.
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Experts in Washington may not care about Trump’s trade agreement and the confrontation with China after they initially handed it over to President Xi Jinping. But such views and the willingness to put the issues of core workers at the center of America-1’s agenda have strengthened ties with voters who feel that the more cosmopolitan, mid-sized, urban Democratic Party has left them behind.
Although the president claims to have restored America’s respect around the world and achieved some successes, including recently developed normative diplomatic agreements between Israel and some Arab states, his leadership has not been accepted across the globe.
In Europe, it is feared that the asset of the second term could irreversibly weaken the transatlantic alliance and even call into question the existence of NATO. In Asia, Trump’s hostility to the US in Japan and South Korea may indicate a significant change in America’s global security situation. The burgeoning Cold War with China is likely to become even more intense, as are the conflicts with Iran. And dictators and law enforcers would remain free from criticism from the United States for another four years, which has traditionally been a defender of human rights and democracy throughout the world.
Biden promises less effort, more hope and light
Biden justified his candidacy by pointing out that the term stormy good is in fact a break with the democratic and philosophical impulses that underlie nearly 250 years of American democracy.
If he wins, he will build on the political opposition to the president that began after Democrats regained control of the House of Representatives in the 2018 by-elections.
Dedicated to restoring the soul of the nation, Biden promises – probably the final blow to the power of his generation – to promote democracy, decency, empathy and internationalism, which he believes are crushed under Trump.
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We can choose the way to become worse and worse, less and less hopeful and more divided, the way of darkness and mistrust. Or we can choose another way, and together we can use this opportunity to be healed, reborn and united. The path of hope and light, Biden told the National Democratic Convention.
This is an election that will change the lives of Americans and determine their future for a very long time. Sign the bulletin. Sympathy in the Bulletin. Decency, science, democracy. They’re all on the ballot. Who we are as a nation. What we stand for. And most importantly, who we want to be.
Biden wants to restore the government’s role in striving to improve the health and economic well-being of Americans, in a tradition that brings together Presidents Franklin Roosevelt, Lyndon Johnson and Barack Obama.
The Biden election will also be the culmination of the winding political road that Washington first took when Richard Nixon was president, and which included all the milestones of the last half century, from Watergate to September 11th, and from the Great Recession to the rise of the first black president of the United States.
Senator Biden, the Californian Kamala Harris, will be the first woman and first man of color in the vice president’s office to break through the glass ceiling again. Biden enjoys strong support from female voters, many of whom have been rejected by Trump’s presidency and the clumsy calls from suburban housewives during the campaign.
And if Biden takes over the Oval Office, it would mean that a sick and grieving America would also turn to a man whose reputation for honesty and compassion has been forged in a personal tragedy throughout his life, at a time when more than a quarter of a million citizens probably died from the virus when it was inaugurated.
Biden, just like Trump, faces enormous challenges.
However, Baiden’s presidency is unlikely to mean a return to a sunny political plateau of unity and stability.
The repeated attempts by the president to have the elections recognized as falsified and fraudulent may reduce the chances that his supporters will accept his defeat, which means that Biden’s hopes for national unity are probably a utopia.
The uncertainty about the fate of the Senate also raises questions about the scope of a possible Biden Presidency. Even if Democrats return to the House, their majority is unlikely to exceed a few seats – and the party coalition could include ultraliberal members and new legislators from some of the most conservative states, making it difficult to unite behind legislation.
Biden probably hears from the progressive factions represented by Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortes’ representative in New York, who have curbed their aggressive demands for radical reform in the service of Trump victory. At the same time, if Biden wins, the Republicans will be involved in the fight for their party’s future, further blinding the political scene.
The fact that Biden’s first year in office will be dominated by efforts to contain the pandemic first and then begin the slow process of its eradication through vaccines and economic preparedness could drain the political capital that many Democrats hope to spend on aggressive climate, health, social and economic legislation.
Just as Trump’s presidency can be seen as a turning point in American history, Biden will also question the long-term viability of his presidency.
When he turns 78 at the end of the month, he will be the longest serving president ever inaugurated. A former Delaware state senator refused, thanks to his strong testimony in two presidential debates, to be attacked on principle by 74-year-old Tromp. But given his age, Biden’s health issues will be a constant companion during his presidency. And Biden will have to work hard to make sure that the issue of his succession and the election of 2024 – at that time he would be almost 82 years old – does not make him an early crippled duck.
But these issues are about the future – and a new election starts as soon as those elections are over.
But first the story will be published in the Bulletin on Tuesday.
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