Notable Super Bowl betting trends

The LV Super Bowl is ready, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs take on Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on February 7 in Tampa, Florida. Here are some nuggets you can bet on to get ready for the big game.

Learn about Super Bowl betting trends

  • The favorites have covered two Super Bowls in a row and three of the last four. The favorites are 27-25-2 overall.
  • The last two Super Bowls were under the total. In the last 20 Super Bowls, there have been 10 overs and 10 decisions for an overall record of 26-26-1 (not counting Super Bowl I).

2 Connected

  • AFC teams have won and covered five of the last six Super Bowls.
  • In the 54 Super Bowls, the favorites are 35-19.
  • A total of 57 would be the second highest number in the Super Bowl final. Super Bowl LVI ended with 58 points and ended in overtime.
  • The Chiefs enter the Super Bowl with a season record of 8-10 ATS, making them the fifth team with an ATS loss (only the Ravens won in 2012).
  • Tom Brady is 4-5 ATS and 6-3 in his Super Bowl career. He was an outsider in his first Super Bowl against the Rams (only two quarterbacks have won multiple Super Bowls as outsiders: Eli Manning and Jim Plunkett, two each).
  • Only two quarterbacks have won multiple Super Bowls as an underdog: Eli Manning and Jim Plunkett (two each).

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  • This is the first time Brady has started as an underdog in three consecutive starts since 2002-03, and the first time in a single season since 2001. It will be the first time Brady has not started as an underdog in three consecutive starts in a series of 308 games. The second-longest streak in the Super Bowl era is that of 201 Aaron Rodgers (active streak).
  • This will be the eighth playoff game in a row in which Mahomes is favored. He will tie with Kurt Warner for most consecutive playoff games to get off to a good start in the Super Bowl era.
  • Mahomes has a record of 27-13-1 ATS when he is not a double-digit favorite (6-0-1 ATS as an outsider, 21-13 ATS as a single-digit favorite).


25Safety 3

  • Set of parts: eagle 25, rooster 29
  • In their only other Super Bowl appearance (2002), Tampa Bay left the field as a four-point underdog. They won the whole way. If the Bucs finish as an underdog, they will join the Giants (3), Raiders (2), Broncos (2) and Washington (2) as the only teams to have won several Super Bowls as an underdog.
  • Mahomes ranks fourth in coverage (61.5 percent) among all BQs from the Super Bowl era, while Brady (59.5 percent) ranks eighth.
  • Brady has a career record of 41-17-1 ATS as an outsider and a career record of 36-23 ATS as an outsider, both of which were the best in the Super Bowl era.
  • Since 2015, the Under 22-9 in Brady starts in the 50 (16-6 since 2017).
  • The Chiefs are the fifth team to reach the Super Bowl with an ATS loss (8-10). Only the Ravens won it all in 2012.
  • Andy Reid is 5-5 ATS with Kansas City with at least 13 days between games. He is 13-4 ATS with Philadelphia in this situation.
  • Since 2018, Brady has covered all five games with at least 13 days between them, including this season’s Week 14 game.
  • The spread has not played in the last 11 Super Bowls. Winners 46-6-2 ATS. The last team to win but not play was Pittsburgh in 2008 against Arizona (-7, 4 wins).
  • The Chiefs are the fifth preseason favorite (+400) to reach the Super Bowl. Three of the last four have won a game.
  • Kansas City is at 5-0 ATS this season, while the line is between +3 and -3.
  • Kansas City is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games, despite covering in its last game.
  • Tampa Bay has covered the last four times as an underdog.
  • The Pirates have won each of the last three games, including Week 12 of this season. In this contest, Kansas City was 3.5 point favorite. Kansas City is 3 point favorite in this contest, even though it is technically a neutral site.

ESPN’s statistics and data team contributed to this story.

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best chance of winning the 2020 Super Bowl?

The Kansas City Chiefs are the Super Bowl champions, but our analysts think four other teams will win the crown in 2020.

What’s the best bet for the Super Bowl?

The money bet is the easiest Super Bowl bet. Simply put, you bet on the team that will win the game “hands down.” You don’t have to worry about how much you win. If the team you bet on wins, you win!

Who benefits from winning the Super Bowl in 2021?

2021 Super Bowl Gap Prediction Although there is no doubt that the Kansas City Chiefs are the favorites to win the Super Bowl, everything points to the Buccaneers being able to win the 3.5 point gap.

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