The NFL’s MVP race is coming to a close, but there are still plenty of games left in the regular season. Will anyone be able to dethrone Alvin Kamara? Our experts predict who will take home hardware this year and what their future holds.
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23 November 2021
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ESPN’s Doug Kezirian
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- Analyst for ESPN Sports Betting
- Daily Wager’s host
- Host of the podcast Behind The Bets
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs have returned to the conversation. The Chiefs have won four consecutive games, including a victory against a serious contender in the Cowboys on Sunday, giving them legitimate championship hype and indicating that they have addressed their previous concerns, especially on defense.
Super Bowl betting odds
Kansas City (+750) is the second favorite after the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+600), and at 13-1 odds a month ago, it offered some interesting value. In my opinion, the Chiefs are still too sloppy, and Mahomes is still not the incredible player that earned the 2018 MVP award. However, the defense has improved dramatically throughout this four-game winning streak, allowing no more than 17 points.
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The New England Patriots (15-1) may be the greatest team in the AFC, with five consecutive victories and covers. On defense, Bill Belichick is hitting all of the proper buttons, and rookie quarterback Mac Jones is developing into a decent quarterback. The Patriots are currently in first position in the AFC East, with two games against the Buffalo Bills left.
The Indianapolis Colts (30-1) seem like a squad bound for the playoffs after their shock victory in Buffalo. I backed a 30-1 bet to win the conference a week ago, and they proved their worth by winning at The Ralph.
The NFC remains a shambles at the top, but the Arizona Cardinals (+900) flashed their strength once again, advancing to 2-1 in the absence of Kyler Murray. Although the Los Angeles Rams (+850) have better odds, the Cardinals are in a good position to capture the division and maybe the conference’s top spot.
Tampa Bay has ended a two-game losing streak and seems to have the easiest remaining schedule. However, the Bucs are 0-5 ATS on the road this season, so don’t get too excited about a home victory against a struggling Giants team without a good quarterback.
Futures for the Super Bowl
Los Angeles Rams +850 Arizona Cardinals +900 Green Bay Packers +1000 Dallas Cowboys +1100 Baltimore Ravens +1200 New England Patriots +1500 Tennessee Titans +1800 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +600 Kansas City Chiefs +750 Buffalo Bills +800 Los Angeles Rams +850 Arizona Cardinals +900 Green Bay Packers +1000 Dallas Cowboys +1100 Baltimore Ravens +1200 New England Patriots +1500 Tennessee Titans +1800
MVP odds
Anyone anyone cursing themselves for not going for Mahomes when he was down 60-1 a few weeks ago? He’s currently the sixth favorite at 9-1, and he’s on a roll. Because the AFC is so wide open, K.C. may yet be able to get a top-two seed, which is usually a need for an MVP quarterback.
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Right now, it’s difficult to see worth in anybody else. Tom Brady (+275) is the clear favorite, but the other NFC first-place teams all lost or were without their best quarterback. In the AFC, Mahomes performed well, while Josh Allen (6-1) and Lamar Jackson (13-1) were unable to progress their respective careers. Let’s not even begin to consider youngster Mac Jones (300-1) as a contender.
In the same vein, we need to put a stop to the Jonathan Taylor (20-1) hoopla. To me, it’s a ridiculous idea. I agree that he will lead the league in running and is an important element of the Indianapolis attack. He is, however, a running back, and running backs do not get the same amount of attention as quarterbacks. A quarterback from a top-two seed will emerge at some point.
To be even mildly interested in a wager, Taylor would have to be 35-1 or better. Obviously, scoring five touchdowns in a single game is incredible, and he will be deserving of the award if he continues to do so. However, I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that this sort of manufacturing will cease. Given that Indy isn’t even a playoff club right now, claiming he’s the MVP so far is ridiculous. Projecting him to win the prize is a different discussion, and one I’m not ready to engage just yet.
Future MVP prospects
+275 Tom Brady Aaron Rodgers +800 Josh Allen +600 +850 Dak Prescott +900 Patrick Mahomes Kyler Murray +1300 Matthew Stafford +900 Justin Herbert +1200 +1-300-LAMAR-JACKSON +2000 Jonathan Taylor
Other accolades to keep an eye on
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The Coach of the Year Award seems to be down to three candidates. I backed Belichick at 18-1 at the start of the season and again at 12-1 last week. Belichick is the second favorite at +500 on DraftKings, after only Kliff Kingsbury (+400). Mike Vrabel (+600) has done an outstanding job, but if Tennessee struggles down the stretch without Derrick Henry, he may fade. I believe Belichick will win this game because he will be credited with the powerful defense and the development of a rookie quarterback. Even if New England qualifies for the playoffs as a wild-card club, he can still win it.
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I’ve said it before, but it’s difficult to see Dak Prescott not earning Comeback Player of the Year. He’s now -400 at DraftKings. It’s never nice to lay that much juice, but the only thing keeping this ticket from cashing is a major injury. Joe Burrow (+600) and James Conner (10-1) have a chance to win, but it would be a long shot.
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The “nfl mvp 2021” is a prediction for the NFL MVP in 2021. The Super Bowl futures watch is an event where fans can bet on which team will win the Super Bowl.
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